*Image from michael-balter.blogspot.com

November 23, 2011 | By Oon Yeoh

THERE are so many factors that will determine which coalition – Barisan Nasional (BN) or Pakatan Rakyat (PR) – will win the next general election.

I think everyone, including opposition supporters, agree that it will be tough going for PR to win because of the East Malaysia factor. It’s not for nothing that Sabah and Sarawak have been called BN’s “fixed deposit”.

Barring a miracle, it’s highly unlikely that we will see any significant East Malaysian swing to PR in the general election. However, if PR manages to win enough seats in Peninsular Malaysia to win a simple majority (or close to it), we are likely to see East Malaysia parties switching sides. This is not to say East Malaysian politicians sway easily, but rather that they are extremely pragmatic.

So, if BN were to lose the peninsula in a big way, it could very well find its fixed deposit slipping away after the polls. I’m sure BN’s political analysts and strategists recognise this, which is why the fight for votes in the peninsula is so important.

The economy is a big factor. That’s the case everywhere you go, not just in Malaysia. Remember US President Bill Clinton’s famous phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid!”? But there’s also another factor that’s increasingly important, especially amongst the urban folk and most notably amongst the young. And it’s the kind of stuff that BN traditionally doesn’t score very well in.

Yes, I’m talking about civil liberties stuff. You know, free speech, human rights, separation of powers and all that good stuff that civil society cares about. In the past, this was fringe stuff, especially when compared to the economy. But as society progresses and matures, this is exactly the kind of stuff that matters. The so-called “rice bowl” is not the be all and end all any more. People do start caring about the environment, about transparency, freedom of information and so on.

The exposure the internet affords today’s youth plays a big role here. Where in the past, the main sources of information were TV, radio and newspapers, these days people just go online for alternate viewpoints.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak recently said winnable candidates are those who are accepted by the new generation. He went as far as to say that this would be the decisive factor in the next general election.

For its part, Umno Youth unveiled a new slogan: “BN pilihan orang muda (BN, the choice of the young).” “All our efforts will be focused on that slogan. We want to show young Malaysian voters that the choice is in their hands, and what BN has to offer,” its chief Khairy Jamaluddin said.

If it is really true that the election will be decided by the so-called “new generation”, the prime minister would do well to consider whether the various issues that this segment of society cares about are best championed by BN or PR.

When Najib first became prime minister, he made all the right moves. He took walkabouts and mingled with the public. His 1Malaysia slogan told people he wanted a united country, and his remark that the days of “government knows best” are over gave people hope that his administration would be less paternalistic.

If I were Najib’s political adviser, I would tell him not to rely only on the warm and fuzzy feedback he gets from the people he meets on his walkabouts or at tea parties for his Twitter followers and Facebook fans. Well-wishers in such situations are not going to give brutally honest feedback.

Rather, I would commission a public opinion survey and ask folks whether they think racial polarisation is still a problem or whether they feel people are more united than ever before. It’s also worth asking if people feel the government is adequately catering to their idealistic aspirations for a more civil society.

It might be the economy, stupid, but like it or not, these are the kinds of things that the new generation cares about. And they’re the kind of things that help win elections in this day and age, the economy notwithstanding.

Oon Yeoh is a new media consultant. Comments: letters@thesundaily.com

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